From the Editor's Couch
Let's put the women and children to bed and go lookin' for f**in' dinner.
London Calling opened the football day. Purple Reign gets the night shift: dinner cleared, tomorrow’s alarm already looking unreasonable, and one more game before we admit the weekend is over.
Baltimore brings Snoop. Atlanta brings Bijan, London and a running game that has been kicking the door in. The question is whether Huntley can keep the Ravens moving—or whether the Falcons make Sunday night feel very long.
Rothstein follows the market. Stringer Bell Model gives Atlanta control. Han Solo has Henry and Bijan trading punches until Huntley’s legs extend Baltimore’s winning drive. Three different reads, with the lineups to match.
London Calling, first read: Jacksonville won 19–17 on Cam Little’s late 57-yard field goal. Rothstein’s Washington–Lawrence passing connection landed: Washington finished with 124 yards and two touchdowns. Han Solo’s 20–17 illustration came closest to the game’s scoring environment, but that does not establish the best fantasy lineup. The Tuten-led script met resistance at the goal line, and Shipley’s injury exposed our shared backfield assumption. Tonight’s lesson: grade the player mechanism separately from the final score. Settled lineup scores and ownership remain pending; this is a game-script review. Game recap · Final stats.
No Lamar, No Problem? Slow Down.
Sunday-morning snapshot · October 11: Lamar is OUT; Huntley starts at $8,800 FLEX. Flowers is expected to play but remains officially questionable. Flowers-in leads our planning; Flowers-out stays a contingency. Hendrickson and Jurgens are OUT, with Humphrey questionable. Official report.
The Sunday-morning secondary odds snapshot still shows Atlanta −3.5, total 43.5. That gives Rothstein an Atlanta 23.5–20 environment. It is a research snapshot, not an executable price. Morning market source.
Snoop, there it is. Our baseline buys 185 passing yards and 42 rushing yards. The recent Huntley starts support taking his legs seriously; they do not establish an automatic Andrews receiving boost. Han Solo pushes the rushing outcome further.
Flowers’ workload, Atlanta’s left tackle and the roof decision remain checks for the final update. The expanded research below holds the full history and source notes.
Why Male Models?
Pick the game script you believe. Each model gives you a lineup and a pivot to make it your own.
Rothstein Model
There are three ways of doing things around here: the right way, the wrong way, and the way I do it.
Picture Atlanta 23.5–20. London concentrates the receiving points while Huntley’s legs keep Baltimore competitive.
- Bijan Robinson$11,800
- Michael Penix Jr.$9,400
- Tyler Huntley$8,800
- Jahan Dotson$3,600
- Austin Hooper$1,600
Why it fits: London with Penix buys Atlanta passing production. Bijan covers its rushing route; Huntley supplies Baltimore points. Dotson and Hooper make the salary work.
What breaks it: Atlanta’s backs take every touchdown, London loses the receiving concentration, or the two cheap receivers fail to earn enough work.
Captain alternative: Bijan Robinson$49,700 · compare the whole lineup
Trade Penix and Hooper for Loop and Pitts; Bijan gets the multiplier. Consider it if Atlanta’s rushing and stalled-drive story strengthens.
- Drake London$9,800
- Tyler Huntley$8,800
- Tyler Loop$5,000
- Kyle Pitts Sr.$4,800
- Jahan Dotson$3,600
Han Solo Model
Never tell me the odds.
Picture Baltimore 27–24. Henry and Bijan trade punches all night. Huntley scrambles to extend the final drive, and Loop kicks Baltimore home.
- Derrick Henry$11,000
- Tyler Huntley$8,800
- Nick Folk$5,400
- Tyler Loop$5,000
- Austin Hooper$1,600
Why it fits: The Henry–Bijan–Huntley core buys the slugfest. Bijan leads this conditional mean projection; Henry Captain is the close alternative. Both kickers cover drives that stop short: the backs can trade punches without finishing every possession in the end zone.
What breaks it: Atlanta’s front shuts down Henry, Brian takes Bijan’s scoring work, or a cheap Hooper role fails. Huntley can decide the game without scoring a rushing touchdown.
Captain alternative: Derrick Henry$49,100 · compare the whole lineup
Same five FLEX roles, with Henry and Bijan swapping slots. Give Henry the multiplier if Baltimore’s rushing finish becomes your stronger read.
- Bijan Robinson$11,800
- Tyler Huntley$8,800
- Nick Folk$5,400
- Tyler Loop$5,000
- Austin Hooper$1,600
Stringer Bell Model
It’s just business.
Picture Atlanta 27–17. Atlanta controls possession, London cashes in through the air, and Baltimore spends the night trying to keep up.
- Bijan Robinson$11,800
- Michael Penix Jr.$9,400
- Mark Andrews$6,400
- Falcons$4,000
- Jahan Dotson$3,600
Why it fits: London–Penix buys the passing share beside Bijan’s rushing. Andrews supplies Baltimore’s short-game response. Falcons DST benefits if the chase turns into mistakes.
What breaks it: Henry takes control, Huntley escapes the pressure, or Atlanta’s rushing scores leave London and Penix short. Dotson remains a budget role, not an established floor.
Captain alternative: Bijan Robinson$49,700 · compare the whole lineup
Trade Penix and Andrews for Huntley and Brian Robinson. You gain another rushing path and give up the Atlanta QB stack; use it if the backs look more likely to own the scoring.
- Drake London$9,800
- Tyler Huntley$8,800
- Brian Robinson Jr.$5,800
- Falcons$4,000
- Jahan Dotson$3,600
We Were on a Break!
Three stories. Some very familiar faces.
Bijan appears in all three central builds. London, Penix, Huntley, Dotson and Hooper each appear in two. Different Captains do not erase shared player risk. These are model options, not an allocation of our entries.
Everybody’s Got a Guy
A cheap tight end is not a personality trait.
The guy we’re paying for: Bijan. Every central build asks Atlanta’s lead back to produce. Brian Robinson’s scoring share is the threat to that spend.
The guy we’re digging into: Huntley. The baseline gives him 42 rushing yards; Han Solo asks for 58. His legs matter, but a decisive scramble does not require six touchdown points.
The guy who can ruin the bargain: Hooper. At $1,600, he appears in Rothstein and Han Solo. Low salary buys room, not routes. Hibner’s reduced receiving role keeps him out of the workshop.
Ownership remains synthetic and uncalibrated. The full player board and conditional builds are below; zero-ownership and ruled-out players stay hidden.
Inside the modelsTen scenarios, ownership board and every workload assumption
Why Male Models?
Three approaches to this game, working lineups that tell the story, and what has to happen for us to look like we know what we’re doing.
One market baseline. One Henry–Bijan slugfest. One Atlanta-control story—with Baltimore-win and stalled-drive tests underneath. Choose the script, then see the six players who benefit.
Rothstein Model
There are three ways of doing things around here: the right way, the wrong way, and the way I do it.
Atlanta −3.5 and 43.5 remain our secondary market snapshot. Huntley is the starter in every active model. The recalibrated Flowers-in baseline gives Huntley 185 passing and 42 rushing yards, Flowers 4.5 catches for 60 yards, Andrews 3.5 for 35, and Hill 1.5 for 12. Flowers-out redistributes his workload and removes 20 team passing yards; every legal build is rerun within the disclosed candidate pool. The six-catch Flowers sensitivity uses 72 receiving yards and reconciles Huntley to 197 passing yards; its touchdown and bonus assumptions stay unchanged.
Han Solo Model
Never tell me the odds.
Henry and Bijan go blow for blow. Huntley keeps Baltimore in it with his legs, then extends the final drive with a scramble that sets up Loop’s winning field goal. Baltimore 27, Atlanta 24.
Henry gets 125 rushing yards and 1.7 total touchdowns; Bijan 120 and 1.4. Huntley gets 58 rushing yards, without assuming the deciding scramble becomes a touchdown. Flowers supplies the passing support. These are conditional editorial means, not promises.
The Han Solo workshop holds Henry, Bijan and Huntley together and tests each at Captain. It ranks builds within that core, rather than calling them unrestricted optima. Loop’s winning kick does not require him to fit every lineup.
What breaks it: Atlanta’s front smothers Henry, Brian Robinson takes the scoring work, Flowers’ injury limits the passing support, or an early lead prevents the backs from trading punches.
Stringer Bell Model: Atlanta runs the block
Atlanta controls possession through its backs; London does enough through the air; Andrews keeps Huntley moving. Bijan gets 115 rushing yards and 1.1 total touchdowns, London six catches for 94 yards. Brian Robinson still gets a meaningful scoring share.
What breaks it: Henry takes over, Baltimore's defense creates short fields, or Atlanta's recent rushing scores cool off. The Henry stress test gives Baltimore a 24–20 route to control the game with Huntley, rather than pretending Lamar might still return.
The recalibrationLess passing. More Snoop. A smaller Hill bet.
Rerun Sunday October 11 with the morning market recheck and Flowers expected-to-play report. Huntley’s baseline moves from 224 passing / 28 rushing yards to 185 / 42. Receiver workloads, touchdowns and bonus assumptions fall with the passing environment. This is an evidence-informed editorial adjustment, not a fitted model.
| Flowers-in baseline | Previous DK | Revised DK | CPT estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 17.0 | 15.6 | 13.8% → 13.0% |
| Mark Andrews | 10.0 | 8.5 | 3.9% → 2.3% |
| Justice Hill | 6.3 | 4.4 | 0.7% → 0.2% |
| Zay Flowers | 15.6 | 13.1 | 11.7% → 9.1% |
| Derrick Henry | 16.1 | 15.4 | 10.9% → 10.9% |
| Matt Hibner | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.0% → 0.0% |
Huntley runs for 38 yards in Stringer Bell Model and 46 in the Henry-control stress test. Andrews gets a conditional Flowers-out bump, not a blanket Huntley boost. Henry’s baseline remains 80 rushing yards and 0.8 total TD; the separate control script uses 115 and 1.25, not his four-TD Green Bay outlier. That stress test assumes Flowers plays.
Ownership weights are unchanged and rerun from the revised projections. Better inputs do not make these estimates measured ownership. A stronger Flowers-out lineup projection reflects target redistribution and salary choices, not evidence that Baltimore improves without Flowers.
Final update planned: 6:20 p.m. Central. Confirm inactives, Flowers’ workload reports, offensive-line availability, roof/weather and current markets before the last rerun.
The lineup workshop
Start with the three central reads: Rothstein / Flowers plays, Han Solo / Henry and Bijan trade blows, and Stringer Bell Model / Flowers plays. The other choices test how those assumptions can fail.
Three different Captains per script, ranked by that script's average-point projection. These are working builds, not simulated GPP winners. Catches, yards and touchdown allocation all matter; a game’s winner does not tell us its winning Captain.
Everybody's Got a Guy
Who the field is likely to roster, where we might disagree, and why being the only guy at the party with Matt Hibner isn’t automatically a flex.
Huntley is confirmed. Flowers-in is the primary working branch. Ruled-out players and players with zero ownership in both slots are hidden. Flowers appears only in Flowers-in branches. The ownership reference follows Rothstein's matching Flowers branch; an editor's favorite outcome does not redefine what the room is buying.
Ownership is a synthetic, uncalibrated estimate. The same ownership method now uses the recalibrated workloads; small projected roles still receive reduced Captain weight. A cheap name still needs a real job. Salary relief helps only when the player has a plausible path to points.
| Player | Team | FLEX salary | Expected DK | CPT est. | FLEX est. | Role assumption |
|---|
Inside the modelsWorkloads, scoring, ownership method and remaining gaps
Han Solo added Sunday October 11 afternoon Central; injury and market news retain the disclosed morning snapshot. Lamar is OUT. Flowers is officially questionable and reportedly expected to play; no availability probability blend is assigned. The 52-player salary file is user supplied. Direct live individual prop boards remain unverified; SI’s morning report quotes Flowers 5.5 receptions, over +103, via DraftKings. Secondary source; this is not a verified live price. Workloads and bonus probabilities are editorial assumptions, not fitted forecasts.
DK scoring: passing yards ×0.04, passing TD ×4, interceptions −1, rushing/receiving yards ×0.1, receptions +1, rushing/receiving TD ×6, lost fumbles −1, bonus probability ×3. Captain multiplies points and salary by 1.5. Kickers use 3.5 points per expected field goal plus extra points; DST expectations are editorial means.
Receiving yards and receiving touchdowns reconcile to each passer. Assumed receiving shares of total RB TD: Henry 8%, Bijan 15%, Brian 10%, Hill 70%; Branch 50%. Flowers-out redistributes catches and receiving TD, and removes 20 team receiving yards. Game-score environments are anchors, not fully reconciled possession simulations.
Ownership enumerates legal six-player lineups from roles projecting at least two points. Weight: exp((lineup points−90)/9), multiplied by Captain priors (Bijan 1.5, Henry/Flowers 1.2, London 1.25, K/DST 0.6, others 1), min(1,(Captain projection/12)^3), and a receiver-Captain passer factor (1.3 with same-team QB, 0.8 without). CPT totals 100%, FLEX 500%. These weights have not been fitted to historical contest results. Small-role exclusions and reserve zeroes are assumptions; Lamar OUT and Smythe IR are verified statuses.
Optimization checks distinct players, both teams, exact CPT/FLEX salaries and the $50,000 cap. Han Solo adds the disclosed three-player core and Captain constraints; its field-ownership weights are still calculated across the unrestricted candidate pool. No payout or duplication simulation. Opponent-history adjustments remain off until role-adjusted game logs are verified.
Expected-stat assumptions for selected script
Before You Donate to DraftKings
A cheap tight end is not a personality trait.
Choose the matching branch. Active alone does not confirm a normal workload.
Salary-enabling roles need routes and targets. Verify the final active roster.
Hibner now projects below the two-point candidate cutoff in every branch and drops out of the lineup workshop. His remaining opportunity comes with competition: Baltimore added blocking specialist Nick Vannett after Smythe went to IR. A roster spot does not promise targets. Official roster update.
Different stories, shared risks: Across the first build in six Flowers-in scenarios, Bijan Robinson 6/6; Drake London 5/6; Tyler Huntley 5/6; Jahan Dotson 4/6; Austin Hooper 3/6. These are equal-build counts, not bankroll allocations or recommended exposures. Compare the full six-player lineup before calling a new Captain diversification. Hooper’s cheap role and Atlanta’s premium players remain recurring bets.
Before a late pivot: write down what changed in the player’s role, projection or availability. Dallas Buyers Club taught us that changing a cheap name can be an expensive decision. Compare the replacement and the full lineup across tonight’s scripts before buying a new story at 7 p.m.
Before You Donate to DraftKings
One more game. One more chance to overthink a tight end.
6:20 p.m. Central: confirm inactives, Flowers’ workload, the offensive lines, roof/weather and fresh markets. Flowers-in leads our planning; Flowers-out stays a contingency.
Before lock: check the Captain slot, all six active players and the $50,000 cap. A late pivot needs a changed role, projection or availability—not an itch to change names.
These are conditional mean-point builds. Han Solo preserves the Henry–Bijan–Huntley core. No payout or duplication simulation has been run.
Snoop, There It Is.What the prior Huntley starts tell us
Snoop, There It Is.
Henry's touchdowns. Huntley's legs. Andrews' reputation needs a date stamp. We matched the current Ravens roster to Huntley's 11 prior Baltimore regular-season starts, with his playoff start kept separate. The two 2025 starts are the closest roster comparisons.
| Current Raven | vs. Bears · Oct. 26, 2025 | at Packers · Dec. 27, 2025 | What it tells us |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huntley | 186 passing yards, 1 TD; 53 rushing yards | 107 passing yards, 1 TD; 60 rushing yards | Rushing production matters; passing volume can stay low. |
| Henry | 21 carries, 71 yards, 2 TD | 36 carries, 216 yards, 4 TD | A Baltimore win can run through Henry. Four TD is an extreme outcome. |
| Flowers | 7 catches, 63 yards; 8 rushing yards | 4 catches, 30 yards, 1 TD | He can retain a role; two games cannot establish a reliable QB effect. |
| Andrews | 3 catches, 34 yards | 4 catches, 28 yards | No TD in either game. No automatic Huntley premium. |
| Bateman | 2 catches, 51 yards | 1 catch, 7 yards | Volatile secondary production; Flowers-out uplift remains an assumption. |
| Hill | 1 carry, 2 yards; no catches | Unavailable after placement on IR | His cheap salary still needs a current receiving-role case. |
| Ali | No credited rushing/receiving production | 2 catches, 8 yards | Small opportunity sample; no demonstrated breakout role. |
| Walker | Inactive | No credited catches | No positive receiving signal from these starts. |
Sources: official Bears box score, Packers box score, Bears inactives, Hill's IR move. No catches means credited production, not proof of no routes or targets.
Andrews, by era: eight catches and 95.8 yards/start in four 2021 starts; five and 58.7 in three full-Huntley 2022 starts; 3.5 and 31 in the two 2025 starts. His 10/136/2 against Green Bay in 2021 proves the ceiling existed. It does not set this Sunday's expectation.
The projection check: Huntley's 10 non-mixed regular-season starts average 159.4 passing and 45.7 rushing yards; the two 2025 starts average 146.5 and 56.5. We recalibrated the Rothstein Flowers-in baseline from 224 passing / 28 rushing yards to 185 / 42, lowered Hill's receiving role, and reduced Andrews' baseline to 3.5 catches for 35 yards. Flowers-out retains a conditional redistribution bump. Henry control remains a separate stress test. These are evidence-informed editorial assumptions, not fitted forecasts; the lineup and synthetic ownership estimates have been rerun.
Hibner, Cuevas, Sarratt and Fagnano are rookies: no prior NFL Huntley-start sample. Wester has no verified receiving production in this collected archive. Chris Moore and Nick Vannett have no verified Baltimore Huntley-start production in this archive. That is missing comparable evidence, not a zero-point forecast. Tyler Loop's two 2025 games included three made field goals against Chicago and two against Green Bay; drive outcomes matter more than a presumed kicker chemistry effect.
Snoop’s greatest hits: the full archive11 regular-season starts, era splits and one separately retained playoff start
Receiving entries are catches / yards / TD. — means unavailable or not a comparable sample. Dec. 11, 2022 is a mixed-QB game and excluded from the non-mixed averages. The Jan. 6, 2024 finale rested starters; it remains in the QB archive but is not a normal receiving-role comparison. Older seasons used different coaches, personnel and opponents. No causal starter-versus-Lamar effect has been measured.
| Date / opponent | Huntley pass / rush yards | Andrews receiving | Bateman receiving | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-21 · CHI | 219 / 40 | 8 / 73 / 0 | 3 / 29 / 0 | complete |
| 2021-12-19 · GB | 215 / 73 | 10 / 136 / 2 | 1 / 5 / 0 | complete |
| 2022-01-02 · LAR | 197 / 54 | 6 / 89 / 0 | 7 / 58 / 0 | complete |
| 2022-01-09 · PIT | 141 / 72 | 8 / 85 / 0 | 2 / 22 / 0 | complete |
| 2022-12-11 · PIT | 88 / 31 | 2 / 17 / 0 | — | mixed QB; Anthony Brown relieved Huntley |
| 2022-12-17 · CLE | 138 / 15 | 3 / 31 / 0 | — | complete |
| 2022-12-24 · ATL | 115 / 26 | 3 / 45 / 0 | — | complete |
| 2023-01-01 · PIT | 130 / 24 | 9 / 100 / 0 | — | complete |
| 2024-01-06 · PIT | 146 / 40 | — | 0 / 0 / 0 | rest finale; Flowers inactive; Andrews unavailable |
| 2025-10-26 · CHI | 186 / 53 | 3 / 34 / 0 | 2 / 51 / 0 | complete |
| 2025-12-27 · GB | 107 / 60 | 4 / 28 / 0 | 1 / 7 / 0 | complete |
Playoff, kept separate: Jan. 15, 2023 at Cincinnati: Huntley 226 passing yards, 2 passing TD, 54 rushing yards; Andrews 5 catches for 73 yards; Hill 2 for 10. Official box score.
Opponent history: Huntley’s 2022 Atlanta start produced 115 passing yards and 26 rushing yards; Andrews caught 3 for 45. Atlanta’s 2022 personnel, weather and Baltimore’s offense differ substantially from this matchup. No opponent-specific boost is applied.
Other roster evidence: Hill had 1 catch for 15 yards plus 3 rushing yards at Cleveland in 2022, 1 catch for 4 against Atlanta that year, and 3 catches for 26 in the 2023-season finale. His older receiving sample is small and inconsistent. No bonus is assigned just because Huntley starts.
The Matchup NotebookTeam data, salaries and source snapshots
The Matchup Notebook
Two running games. One confirmed backup quarterback. And a backup running back with four touchdowns who would very much like to ruin our Bijan narrative.
Four-game sample · official team totals
Henry's workload meets a difficult early-season matchup.
Two starts · Atlanta's scoring surge has leaned on the run.
Same season total as Bijan · model the scoring split.
The first model questions: How much can Henry overcome Atlanta's run defense? Can London's receiving concentration continue? How do we split Atlanta's rushing touchdowns? And what changes with Huntley under center?
Showdown salaries verified: 52 players with matching Captain/FLEX entries. Huntley costs $8,800 at FLEX, versus Lamar at $10,800. Ownership calibration remains open.
Team, player & DraftKings dataProduction board, recent usage, injuries, markets and collection gaps · October 9 first pass
Purple Reign · Research collection
Baltimore at Atlanta · October 11, 2026 · Archived first collection: October 9 morning Central. Current injury news and model assumptions appear above. Four-game season sample unless noted. Observed data and calculated rates below are inputs, not Sunday projections.
Team data
| Metric | Baltimore | Atlanta |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3–1 | 2–2 |
| Offensive yards/game | 395.0 | 360.5 |
| Offensive plays/game | 61.75 | 63.75 |
| Rush yards/game | 153.5 | 181.0 |
| Rush attempts/game | 31.75 | 34.75 |
| Opponent rush yards/game | 100.0 | 48.25 |
| Opponent rush yards/carry | 3.88 | 2.72 |
| Pass attempts/game | 26.25 | 24.75 |
| Third-down conversions | 12/37 · 32.4% | 16/43 · 37.2% |
| Defensive sacks | 7 | 8 |
| Turnover differential | +3 | −5 |
| Offensive rushing/passing TD | 8 / 6 | 8 / 3 |
Sources: Baltimore team statistics and Atlanta team statistics. Rates calculated from reported totals divided by four; yards/carry from totals, not rounded display values. Team-stat “SACKS” read as defensive sacks, cross-checked against player defensive totals. Offensive plays/game is a volume measure, not seconds-per-play pace.
Gross/net passing reconciliation: BAL 1,030 gross passing −64 sack yards +614 rushing =1,580 total offense. ATL 767 gross passing −49 sack yards +724 rushing =1,442. Use gross passing for QB/receiver fantasy reconciliation; net offense for team comparisons.
Player production board
Historical totals; roster roles are not proof of DraftKings eligibility or game-day activation.
| Team | Player | Passing: yards / TD / INT | Rushing: carries / yards / TD | Receiving: catches / yards / TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Lamar Jackson | 967 / 6 / 1 | 19 / 144 / 1 | — |
| BAL | Tyler Huntley | 63 / 0 / 0 | 4 / 16 / 0 | — |
| BAL | Derrick Henry | — | 89 / 374 / 7 | 7 / 44 / 0 |
| BAL | Justice Hill | — | 14 / 60 / 0 | 5 / 44 / 0 |
| BAL | Zay Flowers | — | 1 / 20 / 0 | 18 / 352 / 2 |
| BAL | Rashod Bateman | — | — | 11 / 171 / 1 |
| BAL | Mark Andrews | — | — | 18 / 149 / 1 |
| BAL | Matt Hibner | — | — | 5 / 70 / 1 |
| BAL | Chris Moore | — | — | 3 / 63 / 1 |
| BAL | Devontez Walker | — | — | 2 / 66 / 0 |
| ATL | Michael Penix Jr. | 479 / 2 / 1 | 4 / −4 / 0 | — |
| ATL | Bijan Robinson | — | 85 / 494 / 4 | 14 / 120 / 1 |
| ATL | Brian Robinson | — | 44 / 194 / 4 | 3 / 21 / 0 |
| ATL | Drake London | — | 2 / 4 / 0 | 20 / 370 / 0 |
| ATL | Jahan Dotson | — | — | 6 / 95 / 1 |
| ATL | Kyle Pitts | — | — | 5 / 67 / 0 |
| ATL | Austin Hooper | — | — | 5 / 40 / 1 |
| ATL | Olamide Zaccheaus | — | — | 4 / 17 / 0 |
| ATL | Zachariah Branch | — | — | 5 / 31 / 0 |
Board sources: Baltimore, Atlanta. Penix's totals cover two starts; Huntley's are limited relief action. “—” means not populated here, not a confirmed zero. Bench players remain outside the board in the full verified salary-pool board above.
Atlanta with Penix: isolate the relevant sample
| Player / team | Week 3 at GB | Week 4 at NO |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta points | 35 | 45 |
| Penix passing | 18/25 · 256 yards · 1 TD · 1 INT | 15/20 · 223 yards · 1 TD · 0 INT |
| Bijan rushing | 29–194–2 | 19–145–2 |
| Bijan receiving | 2–19–0 | 1–2–0 |
| Brian rushing | 10–50–1 | 14–62–3 |
| London receiving | 9–194–0 | 5–96–0 |
Primary logs: Penix, Bijan, Brian, London.
Model implications: Atlanta's 40 points/start with Penix came with only 22.5 passing attempts/start and one passing TD/start. London supplied 290 of Penix's 479 passing yards (60.5%). Bijan caught only three passes in these two games. These outcomes support run-led scoring and concentrated receiving branches; they do not establish stable long-run shares. Brian scored three rushing TD in Week 4. Test both backs' TD allocations instead of handing all Atlanta rushing scores to Bijan.
Injury and line-health snapshot
Friday-evening status update: Lamar, Hendrickson and Jurgens OUT; Flowers, Humphrey and Vorhees questionable. Practice columns below retain the Thursday snapshot. Official Friday report takes precedence.
| Player | Injury | Thursday | Why we track it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | Ankle | DNP | OUT; Huntley confirmed starter; remove Lamar branches |
| Zay Flowers | Foot | Limited | Receiving workload and efficiency uncertainty |
| Mark Andrews | Hand | Full | Monitor, rather than automatically downgrade |
| Rashod Bateman | Shoulder | Full | Monitor |
| Marlon Humphrey | Hamstring/calf | DNP | Atlanta receiving matchup |
| Trey Hendrickson | Finger | DNP | Baltimore pass rush |
| Cam Jurgens | Concussion | DNP | Center/line configuration |
| John Simpson | Groin | Limited | Baltimore blocking |
| Andrew Vorhees | Foot | Limited | Baltimore blocking |
| Ronnie Stanley | Rest/toe/ankle | Full | Baltimore blocking |
| Jake Matthews | Groin | Limited | Atlanta pass protection |
| Za'Darius Smith | Concussion/neck | DNP | Atlanta pass rush |
| Divine Deablo | Hamstring | Limited | Atlanta linebacker rotation |
| Samson Ebukam | Hamstring | Limited | Atlanta edge rotation |
Sources: Atlanta injury report, Baltimore injury report. Official depth charts list Penix first for Atlanta, Lamar/Huntley for Baltimore. Depth charts can retain injured players; check inactive lists separately.
Workload evidence and open questions
Official Baltimore reporting gives Flowers 6.3 yards/route run, 58 team pressures and seven sacks. Treat extraordinary early efficiency as something to stress-test downward, especially with a quarterback change. Pressures do not earn DraftKings sack points. Official four-game review.
Secondary snap counts for Atlanta's last two games:
| Player | W3 snaps / share of 71 | W4 snaps / share of 57 |
|---|---|---|
| London | 66 / 93.0% | 51 / 89.5% |
| Bijan | 51 / 71.8% | 34 / 59.6% |
| Brian | 19 / 26.8% | 24 / 42.1% |
| Pitts | 42 / 59.2% | 29 / 50.9% |
| Dotson | 47 / 66.2% | 36 / 63.2% |
Sources: Week 3 snap report, Week 4 snap report. Percentages calculated here; gamebook cross-check pending. Multiple backs can be on the field, so snap shares need not sum to 100%. Snap share is not route participation or target share. Team-derived carries and receptions are stronger verified inputs at this stage.
Still missing: per-game targets and routes across the full board, air-yard shares, inside-five carry and end-zone target shares, complete Baltimore gamebooks/snaps, and opponent-adjusted efficiency. Do not infer these from catches or touchdowns.
DraftKings collection status
| Input | Status |
|---|---|
| Sunday full-game Showdown salary CSV, player IDs, eligibility | Verified October 9: 52 players, 104 Captain/FLEX entries |
| FLEX and Captain salaries | Verified; see Rothstein collection board |
| Contest sizes, fees, entry limits and payout ladders | Not captured; exact contest screens needed for payout modeling |
| Settled Thursday standings / final entered lineups | Eight settled exports verified; payouts remain open |
| Sunday ownership | Synthetic provisional estimates in the interactive model board |
| Sportsbook spread/total | Secondary DK-attributed snapshot collected below |
| Player props | BetMGM anytime TD board captured; other prop markets unresolved |
An October 8 multi-game salary article lists Bijan $8,700, but that is a Thu–Mon slate salary, not Sunday's Showdown FLEX salary, and is excluded from model inputs. Sportsbook props, DFS salaries, historical FPPG and projections are different fields.
Market snapshot retrieved October 9 morning: NBC attributes ATL −3 (−118), total 43.5, ATL moneyline −170 / BAL +142 to DraftKings. Arithmetic implied totals are ATL 23.25 / BAL 20.25. This is a secondary published snapshot, not a freshly confirmed direct-book quote. NBC odds page. The direct DraftKings event page yielded navigation but no price board. The Sunday-morning Covers recheck supports ATL −3.5 / 43.5, superseding this retained morning −3 snapshot. Conflicting Baltimore-favorite pages are excluded.
Next model inputs
Carry Thursday’s lessons into the editorial and model discussion; retain the full audit in the appendix. Build the Rothstein market baseline from a refreshed spread/total; let Han Solo express our researched departure; keep Coach Taylor in Thursday’s historical review. Add opposite-team control and low-scoring stress branches. Huntley is confirmed; vary Flowers availability within each relevant branch. Freeze salaries, statuses and assumptions before comparing results.
Ten conditional mean-projection branches have now been optimized using the verified salary pool. Payout and duplication simulation remain unperformed. The interactive board supersedes this dated collection snapshot.
Rothstein: building the baseline
The salary pool is locked into our research. The market board is taking shape. Huntley is confirmed; Flowers gets separate in/out branches.
Rothstein input board & weekly workflowAll 52 salaries, verified anytime TD prices, ownership method and unresolved inputs
Rothstein: first collection pass
Sunday October 11 morning update. Salary and historical TD snapshots retained; current assumptions appear in the interactive models.
Same process. Every issue.
Primary contest profile: single-entry GPP. Keep small-field and larger-field single entry separate; large-field multi-entry is a comparison. These are analytical profiles, not captured payout ladders.
Before each game: import the exact Showdown salary file, record market source and retrieval time, then maintain only plausible availability branches; this issue now uses confirmed Huntley with Flowers-in/out sensitivities. After each game: save the settled contest-results CSV and compare projections with actual points and Captain/FLEX ownership. Save salaries with results so historical lineup costs remain reconstructable.
Collection checkpoints: early issue, final practice report, final inactives. No automatic refresh has been connected. Public sources are the starting method; an authenticated odds API can replace manual collection later.
Market baseline and limits
Sunday-morning recheck: secondary Covers snapshot Atlanta −3.5, total 43.5; implied points Atlanta 23.5 / Baltimore 20. Huntley is confirmed by Baltimore. Flowers-out keeps this environment constant as a controlled workload sensitivity, not a separately quoted market. Direct executable-book confirmation remains open.
The current public DraftKings event page exposes no usable price board in retrieval. Direct live yardage, reception and passing-TD boards remain unverified. SI reports Flowers 5.5 receptions (over +103) via DraftKings; this secondary price informs a sensitivity, not a fitted mean. Alternate thresholds surfaced elsewhere are excluded rather than substituted for a main line.
Touchdown price board
BetMGM publisher snapshot dated October 9, 7:59 AM (publisher timezone unspecified), retrieved October 9 morning Central. Anytime scorer prices, not first-touchdown prices. Raw implied chances include bookmaker margin, are not fair probabilities, and are not expected TD counts. They cannot be multiplied by six to obtain a complete touchdown projection.
| Player | Anytime TD price | Raw implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | -235 | 70.1% |
| Derrick Henry | -150 | 60.0% |
| Drake London | +120 | 45.5% |
| Zay Flowers | +175 | 36.4% |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | +230 | 30.3% |
| Mark Andrews | +260 | 27.8% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | +375 | 21.1% |
| Tyler Huntley | +475 | 17.4% |
| Jahan Dotson | +500 | 16.7% |
| Rashod Bateman | +525 | 16.0% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | +850 | 10.5% |
| Austin Hooper | +950 | 9.5% |
| Michael Penix Jr. | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Charlie Woerner | +2000 | 4.8% |
Source: BetMGM market-specific report. Huntley is listed; Lamar is absent from this board. That is consistent with a Huntley planning branch, and Baltimore has now officially ruled Lamar OUT. The TD board below is a retained morning snapshot, not refreshed evening prop prices.
Exact salary pool
Uploaded Showdown CSV: BAL at ATL, October 11, 8:20 PM ET. 52 players, 104 roster entries, Captain/FLEX pairs reconciled. Each Captain salary equals 1.5 times FLEX. Historical FPPG is not used as a Sunday forecast. Listing in the pool does not establish activation.
| Player | Team | FLEX | Captain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | $11,800 | $17,700 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | $11,000 | $16,500 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | $10,800 | $16,200 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | $10,000 | $15,000 |
| Drake London | ATL | $9,800 | $14,700 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | $9,400 | $14,100 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | $8,800 | $13,200 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | $6,400 | $9,600 |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | $6,200 | $9,300 |
| Cooper Rush | ATL | $6,000 | $9,000 |
| Jack Strand | ATL | $6,000 | $9,000 |
| Skylar Thompson | BAL | $6,000 | $9,000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | ATL | $6,000 | $9,000 |
| Joe Fagnano | BAL | $6,000 | $9,000 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | ATL | $5,800 | $8,700 |
| Nick Folk | ATL | $5,400 | $8,100 |
| Tyler Loop | BAL | $5,000 | $7,500 |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL | $4,800 | $7,200 |
| Ravens | BAL | $4,400 | $6,600 |
| Falcons | ATL | $4,000 | $6,000 |
| Jahan Dotson | ATL | $3,600 | $5,400 |
| Justice Hill | BAL | $3,200 | $4,800 |
| Devontez Walker | BAL | $3,000 | $4,500 |
| Chris Moore | BAL | $2,800 | $4,200 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | ATL | $2,400 | $3,600 |
| Zachariah Branch | ATL | $2,000 | $3,000 |
| Austin Hooper | ATL | $1,600 | $2,400 |
| Matt Hibner | BAL | $1,400 | $2,100 |
| Elijah Sarratt | BAL | $1,200 | $1,800 |
| LaJohntay Wester | BAL | $1,000 | $1,500 |
| Chris Blair | ATL | $800 | $1,200 |
| Charlie Woerner | ATL | $600 | $900 |
| Rasheen Ali | BAL | $400 | $600 |
| Trey Sermon | ATL | $200 | $300 |
| Adam Randall | BAL | $200 | $300 |
| Jonathan Ward | BAL | $200 | $300 |
| Jam Miller | ATL | $200 | $300 |
| Lucas Scott | BAL | $200 | $300 |
| Khalil Herbert | ATL | $200 | $300 |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | BAL | $200 | $300 |
| Beaux Collins | ATL | $200 | $300 |
| Gage Larvadain | BAL | $200 | $300 |
| Dylan Drummond | ATL | $200 | $300 |
| Xavier Guillory | BAL | $200 | $300 |
| Antwane Wells Jr. | ATL | $200 | $300 |
| Vinny Anthony II | ATL | $200 | $300 |
| Durham Smythe | BAL | $200 | $300 |
| Ty Pezza | BAL | $200 | $300 |
| Josh Cuevas | BAL | $200 | $300 |
| Nick Vannett | BAL | $200 | $300 |
| Jack Velling | ATL | $200 | $300 |
| Nick Muse | ATL | $200 | $300 |
Ownership: calibration comes first
Eight settled Dallas contest exports are now available: seven single-entry fields and one multi-entry field. They provide actual historical ownership. The first Sunday field model is synthetic and uncalibrated; see the interactive board above. Compute Captain and FLEX separately, retain contest entry limits and field size, and evaluate errors separately by profile. Match historical slates on prices, game total/spread, workload concentration and quarterback availability. Do not label third-party projected ownership as historical actual ownership.
Required checks: each player ownership between 0 and 100%; Captain total 100%; FLEX total 500%; no player appears twice in one generated lineup; $50,000 salary limit; at least one player from each team. Reconciled totals alone do not validate prediction accuracy.
DraftKings results download: website > Contests > History > Results > Export Lineups to CSV below Standings. Downloads are available for ten days after contest completion. Official instructions.
What remains before final lock
Fresh spread/total and available two-sided props; workload assumptions with explicit gaps; separate quarterback projections; validated salary optimization. Settled contest files unlock ownership calibration. Until then, any ownership scenario must be labeled an uncalibrated estimate. Opponent-history adjustments remain off until supporting game logs are checked against role and baseline production.
Sources and scoringExpected points, not guaranteed outcomes
DraftKings PPR scoring and the Captain 1.5× multiplier are used. Team news, source snapshots and workload assumptions are linked in the expanded research above. Ownership remains synthetic; final inactives and market checks are pending.