From the Editor’s Couch
Chicago’s 31–7 loss supplied five giveaways and four completions allowed of at least 40 yards. There was plenty to be unhappy about. [1]
But remember the opener: Bears 59, Panthers 37. It was tied 31–31 in the third quarter before Chicago pulled away. That game gave us a template: the defense might give up plenty, and the offense can still win it. [2][3]
With a salute to the great Denny Green, and one small update to his famous line: [4]
The Bears may have to outscore their defensive problems. Ben and a healthy Caleb give them a chance to do it—and make the rest of this season a lot more fun than Green Bay felt.
Ben still has the matches
Start with the encouraging part: Johnson has built offenses that can turn an ordinary possession into something worth calling somebody into the room for.
His last three offenses finished in the top five in explosive-play rate. All four completed seasons finished in the top nine in scoring. Last year’s Bears produced 75 explosives in their final nine regular-season games and two playoff games. [6]
The offensive case
Ben keeps the fuse lit.
Four seasons. A consistent source of scoring.
Explosive = passing gain 20+ yards or rush 10+ yards. Team scoring includes all phases.
The Sunday Grind calculations · 2022–2025 regular seasons · Source 6
Carolina showed us the possibilities: a 47-yard Rome Odunze catch, a 22-yard Cole Kmet touchdown and a 61-yard Kyle Monangai touchdown run. The big play can come through the air, on the ground or after Caleb buys a little extra time. [3]
That was one game. Minnesota’s 9–3 rain-soaked afternoon gets the weather asterisk for both offenses and defenses, and Williams’ injury leaves us with a small healthy-Caleb sample this season. That is why Johnson’s longer record matters. [7][8]
A healthy Williams gives that offense its most interesting possibilities back. Protection, timing and taking care of the ball still have to come with him.
Everybody gets a sparkler
The uncomfortable part is that Chicago has been generous with those possibilities at the other end, too.
In 2025, 11.4% of opponent pass attempts against Chicago became completions of 20+ yards—the NFL’s highest rate. [9] Through Week 5, 5.4% became completions of 40+ yards, also a league high. [5]
Green Bay put the invitation on film. Future opponents have a reason to test Chicago downfield, and Sweat’s two-game suspension adds a short-term hurdle. Coverage assignments, angles and safety help need to improve; the results alone cannot tell us every defensive back is too slow. [1][11]
That is the case for more shootouts: a defense that lets opponents skip downfield, paired with an offense built to take the same shortcuts. The league-wide numbers show why those big gains matter to the scoreboard.
Our 2025 league-wide study found 0.89 offensive points per drive without an explosive, 3.42 with exactly one, and 5.02 with two or more. Long touchdowns count, and longer drives have more opportunities for big gains, so this is an association—not a forecast of next Sunday’s score. [6]
Why big gains matter
An explosive changes the drive.
Offensive points per drive · 2025 NFL regular season
Bars begin at zero; scale extends to six points per drive.
5,524 eligible possessions. Association, not a causal points bonus; explosive touchdowns count.
The Sunday Grind calculations · nflverse play-by-play · Source 6
Carolina showed what can happen when Chicago wins that exchange: 37 points allowed, 59 scored. Green Bay was the ugly version, where the Bears could not answer. A healthier offense could move us toward more two-sided fireworks, even while the defense remains a concern. [1][2]
Keep the good chair
The defense still needs to improve. Fewer explosive passes allowed and better ball security would make these scoring races a lot easier to win.
Green Bay exposed how much scoring this team might need. It did not erase the offense capable of supplying it. With Ben and a healthy Caleb, the Bears still have a chance to make those games worth every minute in the good chair.
Keep the good chair. Leave the remote within reach. Save the garage project for the bye.
Bear Down.
Green Bay sucks.
The Research DrawerSources, definitions and the comparison tables.
The receipts, without turning a Friday read into homework.
Cutoffs: Revised October 16, 2026. Current-season performance through Week 5. Latest verified availability: Friday, October 16. Williams practiced fully and is questionable for Atlanta; his start is not confirmed. [8] This is a season-outlook column, not a final game-status report.
Explosives and drives: Passing gains of 20+ yards or rushes of 10+ yards. Eligible play rates include sacks and scrambles but exclude kneels, spikes, two-point attempts and nullified plays. Eligible drives contain an offensive down; return-only and kneel/spike-only possessions are excluded. Other end-of-half drives remain. Offensive points exclude defensive/return touchdowns and associated conversions.
Ben’s four completed seasons
| Season | Team points/game · rank | League points/game | Explosive rate · rank | League explosive rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Detroit | 26.6 · 5th | 21.9 | 10.2% · 16th | 9.8% |
| 2023 Detroit | 27.1 · 5th | 21.8 | 11.7% · 3rd | 9.6% |
| 2024 Detroit | 33.2 · 1st | 22.9 | 11.9% · 5th | 9.9% |
| 2025 Chicago | 25.9 · 9th | 23.0 | 11.7% · 5th | 9.6% |
League averages pool team-games or eligible plays. Late Chicago sample: Weeks 10–18 of 2025 plus two playoff games, with 42 passing and 33 rushing explosives. These are the calculations retained from our original research, not newly simulated forecasts. [6]
Explosives and scoring
| Explosives on drive | Drives | Offensive points/drive | Drives producing points |
|---|---|---|---|
| None | 3,152 | 0.89 | 19.4% |
| Exactly one | 1,698 | 3.42 | 63.1% |
| Two or more | 674 | 5.02 | 84.9% |
Excluding explosive touchdowns from the classifier: 3.59 points with another qualifying gain versus 1.25 without one. Drive survival, field position, game state and opponents affect the association. [6]
Coverage context: Completion rates here use opponent attempts as the denominator. Future opponents’ downfield frequency and the precise causes of coverage damage remain hypotheses to track. Our earlier pressure check ranked Chicago 14th overall and 16th without blitzing as of October 13, so this issue does not treat the pass rush as uniformly bad. [10] Minnesota’s weather context applies to both teams. The quarterback’s return and cleaner execution remain conditions of the offensive outlook.
Denny Green homage: The adapted Week 1 line is our editorial remix, not a statement Green made about this team. The historical game was October 16, 2006. The accompanying link leads to the Bears’ retrospective.
Sources
1. Chicago Bears — Green Bay recap, October 11, 2026.
2. Chicago Bears — Week 1 by the numbers, September 14, 2026.
3. Chicago Bears — Carolina opener recap.
4. Chicago Bears — The October 16, 2006 comeback and Dennis Green’s press conference.
5. NFL — 2026 defensive passing.
6. The Sunday Grind calculations retained from October 15: nflverse schedules and results, 2022–2026 play-by-play, and field dictionary.
7. Chicago Bears — Minnesota recap, September 20, 2026.
8. Chicago Bears — Friday injury report: Caleb questionable for Atlanta, October 16, 2026.
9. NFL — 2025 defensive passing.
10. Sharp Football — Defensive line statistics, prior research snapshot dated October 13, 2026.
11. Chicago Bears — Sweat suspension and team availability, October 14, 2026.