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Today’s screenshot prices and starts match these comparisons and the official grid. IDs come from the supplied race-specific export. Historical average points are not Talladega projections.

Shares count appearances within this twenty-model set. Field ownership is unprojected. The Jeb–Thompson–Poole trio appears in 3/20; 7/20 omit all three together.

Most repeated pair: Dean Thompson / Parker Retzlaff (6/20). Most repeated triple: Brennan Poole / Dean Thompson / Parker Retzlaff (4/20). A different supporting group can still share the same incident.

Compared 1,852,510 salary-legal sixes, then selected twenty from a disclosed shortlist across 39 full-field stress cases. These are analyst cases with equal coverage weights, not calibrated outcome probabilities. All cases assign distinct finishes and conserve led and fastest-lap supply; one overtime case uses 98 laps.

Seven alternate pack-loss cases give every driver a bottom-six downside state. A greedy selection rewards covering different strong sixes and uses a soft concentration penalty. No fixed family quota, salary floor or hard multi-cheap ban is used. There is no claim of a global tournament optimum, projected ownership or expected payout.

The penalty preference was chosen from four tested settings: use the least concentrated result within 0.005 of the best case-coverage ratio. The full set still repeats drivers and can lose together. Family labels describe constructions; they do not make the underlying assumptions independent.

The scheduled stage ends are 25, 50 and 94. Compared with Phoenix’s 200 laps, there are fewer scheduled laps to divide among leaders. Finishing position and position gain deserve close attention alongside the available lap scoring.

If the current slate retains the standard 0.25 points per led lap and 0.45 per fastest lap, the base-distance arithmetic is 23.5 led points plus at most 42.3 fastest-lap points for the field. Cautions reduce fastest-lap opportunities; overtime needs its own case. Current contest scoring remains to be verified.

In spring’s longer 113-lap race, Day won after leading one lap, Love led 37 and finished seventh, and Crews went from 18th to second. Those are different ways to score. They are evidence for scenarios, with no assigned probability here.

Friday’s lesson is now in the construction: no hard ban on several cheaper finishers, and 7/20 models omit Jeb, Thompson and Poole together. The trio is still used in 3/20 when its recovery story fits.

All driver, pair, triple and four-driver counts were checked, along with alternate shared losses. This is risk testing, not a measured reduction in crash probability. Several different groups can still be caught in one wreck.

No sourced numerical field-ownership forecast is available. All 41 screenshot prices match the supplied race-specific export; all 38 green starting-position badges match NASCAR’s official grid. Three DNQ rows remain listed without starts and are excluded. Their plus icons do not reverse the official qualifying result.

IDs come from the original race-specific export; they are not visible in the screenshots. Leland Honeyman Jr. on NASCAR’s sheet matches Leland Honeyman in the export. NASCAR’s championship-ineligibility marker does not determine fantasy eligibility.

Grid rechecked: NASCAR’s starting-lineup and both-round qualifying PDFs still show 38 qualifiers. Lavar Scott, Carson Ware and Patrick Emerling are the three DNQs. Love remains on pole, Finch second and Hill fifth. No O’Reilly practice was scheduled. The linked grid’s issuance remains 11:44 a.m. Central.

Day: the No. 17 developed a water leak and faces an engine-change rear drop. Racing News reports a plan to install the backup car’s engine in the primary. That describes the intended work; completion and later inspection clearance remain unverified. His official grid position is still 10th, so the rear drop supplies no assumed extra position-gain points.

Pulliam: Racing News reports that brake failure prevented the required pit-lane brake check and his qualifying run. The official grid places him 38th on owner points. Our read: keep him outside the provisional comparison sixes until a completed repair and race readiness are confirmed. Last on the grid does not fix the brakes.

Weather: the available NWS city-area forecast was checked again. Its displayed issuance is still October 23 at 6:06 p.m. Central: sunny Saturday near 74°F, northeast wind around 5 mph. No newer track-level forecast or live track observation was verified. The model stories retain the scheduled 94-lap distance.

Screenshot reconciliation: all 38 starts and all listed prices match. Day is P10; Pulliam P38. The player rows display 2:53 p.m. CDT. The actual contest countdown and current Classic rules screen remain unverified, so these twenty and their CSV are provisional under the standard six-driver, $50,000 format. No blanket inspection all-clear or completed repair for Day/Pulliam was verified.

Race-day model review: October 24, 2026, 1:18 p.m. Central. Supplied screenshots from 12:58–12:59 p.m. Central reconcile all 38 scored starts and listed prices to the official field and supplied race-specific IDs. The twenty replace the three earlier arithmetic construction examples. They are selected against 39 disclosed house cases, not calibrated projections. Standard Classic rules and the actual contest countdown remain unverified.

• Historical Daytona drafting evidence
• Historical EchoPark supporting-driver evidence
• October 24 race-day report · Pulliam’s brake trouble and Day’s intended engine swap
• Official October 24 starting grid · issued 12:44 p.m. Eastern
• Official October 24 qualifying · both rounds
• Race-day report · Day’s engine change and official P10
• NWS Talladega city-area forecast · displayed issuance October 23
• October 24 regional weather update
• NASCAR · Jeb Burton’s Talladega win history
• Official weekend timetable
• Track schedule and session updates
• NASCAR fall entry list
• Official spring results
• NASCAR Wire Service championship preview
• JRM Talladega preview
• Friday’s Truck incident report
• Race hub and qualifying reports

The 39 case record now assigns every qualified driver a distinct finish and coherent completed laps. Each lap has one eligible leader, fastest laps have a separate budget, and all production stops at retirement. One stated 98-lap overtime case extends the normal 94-lap supply. No empirical outcome probabilities have been fitted.

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